GOP numbers dip in California as more voters 'Decline to State' party preference

Even as Califoia’s population is growing, the rate of voter registration is down, and more Califoians are declaring themselves independent of the traditional two-party system, a shift that’s come mostly at the expense of the Republican Party.

Califoia Secretary of State Alex Padilla recently released a report on voter registration as of Jan. 5, showing that 70.2 percent of eligible Califoians are registered to vote. That’s down almost 2 percent from the same period four years ago, but higher than comparable points in 2008, 2007 and 1999.

Fewer of those voters are sticking with the Grand Old Party: Only 27.6 percent of voters, or about 4.76 million Califoians, are registered as Republicans, down almost 3 percent from 5.17 million voters four years ago. Democrats mostly held steady, dipping from 43.6 percent of the voters in 2012 to 43.1 percent today, for a total of 7.44 million Califoians.

During that four-year period, the number of eligible voters in the state grew from 23.6 million residents to 24.5 million, although the number of registered voters grew by only 231,123.

But about 24 percent of voters have declared no party preference, up almost 3 percent — half a million voters — from four years ago.

“It’s not surprising; it’s a continuation of a trend that’s been going on for over 20 years,” said Jack Pitney, professor of American politics at Claremont McKea College. “There really is not much reason to make a public declaration of their political preference.”

That shift isn’t necessarily disaffected Republicans leaving the party, according to former San Beardino County Republican chairman and county assessor Bill Postmus. They may have left Califoia altogether.

“Over the last 10 years, they estimate about 5 million residents have left Califoia and have gone to states like Texas, Idaho, Arizona and Utah,” he said. “A lot of those are small business owners, leaving because of high regulation and taxes, going to more red states.”

Pitney said the decline of the defense industry in Califoia, which attracted right-leaning workers, also contributed.

And those replacing the departing Califoians tend to be less enamored of traditional parties, especially Republicans.

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“Milleials tend to be more independent,” Postmus said. “The GOP really needs to work on reaching out to milleials, because those are definitely our future.”

Party leaders have plans in place to coect with those independent voters.

“It’s been a trend for a while: People are more subject-loyal than they are party-loyal,” said San Beardino County GOP chairman Curt Hagman.

But the party is working to disce which issues voters care most about, he said, and speak to them on those issues.

“We want to start talking about a larger spectrum of ideas and topics and not make people feel like they have to agree with all 50 points (of a platform) to be part of the party,” said Hagman, who also serves as the Fourth District supervisor on the San Beardino County Board of Supervisors. “Most voters will have maybe one, two or three things that drive them to the poll.”

Marcia Godwin, professor of public administration at the University of La Vee, also credits Califoia’s new motor voter law, which registers motorists to vote by default. But it doesn’t necessarily get them to the polls.

Despite the decline of registered Republicans, Jim Brulte, the head of the Califoia GOP, has had some victories, picking up two seats in the Assembly to take away the Democrats’ super-majority there, as well as one seat in the state Senate.

Brulte is “doing as good of a job as any human being can do,” Pitney said.

How many Califoians are registered as Republicans is ultimately less important to Hagman than if they vote Republican.

“My goal is to get them to vote Republican, not necessarily to become a party member,” he said. “For me, it’s about changing the attitude of voters, and who they vote for. Then hopefully, I get them to support the party later.”

Even in left-leaning Los Angeles County, Democrats make up less than half — barely — of the 4,834,496 voters registered. (A total of 6,165,987 adults in L.A. County are eligible to vote.)

Of them, 49.95 percent of voters are registered Democrats, followed by 24.77 percent who have no party preference and 20.26 percent who are registered Republican. The remainder are split between the American Independent, Green, Libertarian, Peace and Freedom and other minor political parties.

In San Beardino County, no one party holds the majority. Only 727,494 people out of the 1,290,994 eligible to vote are registered — 56.35 percent. Of those, 37.94 percent are registered Democratic, 34.35 percent are registered Republican and 22.35 percent have no preference. The remainder are split between the minor political parties.

That split likely means good things for Democrats in this presidential election year, according to Godwin.

“More Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents are likely to vote in 2016,” she wrote. “That means that the modest Republican gains in the 2014 election could evaporate. We are also likely to see more Democrat versus Democrat races where Republicans can act as a swing block to elect the Democrat perceived as being more moderate.”

The secretary of state would just like to see more Califoians at the polls, whatever their affiliation, or lack thereof.

“If the election were held today, over 7 million otherwise eligible Califoians would be left on the sidelines,” Padilla is quoted as saying in a news release issued by his office. “Fortunately, there is still time to register to vote in the June 7 Presidential Primary Election.

“Whether you’ve recently tued 18, become a new US citizen, or just want to vote for the first time — I urge Califoians to register today.”

Califoians can register or update their registration information online at registertovote.ca.gov. The deadline to register before the June 7 primary is May 23.

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